Carney expected to announce decision on pipeline’s national interest designation

In May, Carney and Smith signed an implementation agreement for the energy deal which set a deadline of Oct. 1 for a decision on the designation for the pipeline. That agreement also said the pipeline’s construction and the construction of the Pathways carbon capture project would be “mutually dependent.”

In August, Ottawa posted in the Canada Gazette that it intended to move ahead with the national interest designation.

The notice said Indigenous consultation was already underway. Energy Minister Tim Hodgson told the Globe and Mail earlier this week he expects the Major Projects Office to complete its work on time, allowing the project to receive the designation.

Carney said taxpayers wouldn’t foot the bill for the pipeline when he first announced the project in 2025, but no private sector proponent has stepped up to pay for it entirely.

The only private-sector player is the Pembina Pipeline Corp. The company entered into a non-binding agreement earlier this year for a 10 per cent stake during construction of the proposed pipeline, with the option for up to another 10 per cent interest once the project enters commercial operation.

Ottawa and Alberta will split the rest of the cost through the Trans Mountain Corp., and the Alberta Petroleum Marketing Commission.

Lance Mortlock, managing partner at EY Canada, said there’s a “chicken and egg” scenario between construction of a massive new pipeline and expansion of oilsands production to fill that pipeline long-term.

Producers have in recent years shied away from big-ticket investments, in part due to a shortage of pipeline infrastructure to bring their oil to market.

“My sense is they’ve been waiting to see if some of the conditions start to change,” Mortlock said.

Industry has welcomed Ottawa’s moves to simplify the regulatory process, roll back Trudeau-era environmental policies and beef up tax incentives for new investments. Smaller scale, shorter-term pipeline expansion projects to the U.S. and West Coast are now in the works.

“We will start to see the companies develop big capital projects again. Do I think that we’re going to see the mega mines that we saw 10 years ago? Probably not. But do I think we’re going to 150,000, 200,000-barrel-a-day in situ expansion? Yeah, for sure,” Mortock said, referring to steam-driven operations with a smaller footprint.

“And now the work is beginning at some of these oilsands companies to say, ‘Well, what does that look like? What kind of assets would we develop? How big would we develop them? What’s the sequencing of those assets?’”

Thursday’s announcement is the second major energy announcement this week.

On Tuesday, the partners behind the LNG Canada natural gas export facility in Kitimat, B.C., gave the green light to an expansion that would double capacity.

Mortlock said it’s an exciting time for Canada.

“A long time ago we talked about, and then we ended building, the railroad across Canada. And here we are again, at a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity that will really set the path for this country for the next 100 years,” he said.

“So if we play our cards right, and we make the right trade-off decisions, we prioritize the right things we will create a strong, independent, prosperous country for future generations.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 1, 2026.

— With files from Lauren Krugel in Calgary, and Daniel Johnson in Toronto.

Nick Murray, The Canadian Press

by The Canadian Press

Carney expected to announce decision on pipeline’s national interest designation

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