By The Canadian Press

Toronto, Vancouver show biggest signs of mortgage stress: CMHC

Feb 5, 2026 | 10:24 AM

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says it sees signs of financial stress among homeowners in Toronto and Vancouver, with missed mortgage payments projected to steadily increase, albeit from a low level.

Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, deputy chief economist at CMHC, said in a report Thursday that financial pressures among homeowners vary across major markets in Canada, but Toronto and Vancouver appear to be most at risk.

“Vulnerabilities are becoming apparent in high-priced markets like Toronto and Vancouver and among pandemic-era, highly leveraged buyers. However, the pressure is not limited to these groups,” she said.

“Regions with high exposure to tariffs are also increasingly at risk. Job losses are already evident in certain industries and regions heavily impacted by tariffs. We may see a growing number of households struggling to meet both non-mortgage and mortgage payments.”

The growth in missed mortgage payments in Toronto, which has more than quadrupled from post-pandemic lows, is the result of several factors, the report said. That includes higher household debt levels, concentrated mom-and-pop investor activity, slower sales activity and a weaker labour market.

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“Delinquency pressures in the (Greater Toronto Area) are expected to remain elevated throughout 2026,” the report said.

Meanwhile, Vancouver’s housing market has shown an incremental rise in missed mortgage payments, which CMHC said can be attributed to high debt levels and a softer resale market.

The report also said first-time buyers who purchased during the pandemic when interest rates were at rock bottom levels are also showing greater signs of vulnerability.

It said they took on larger debt levels relative to their income and have limited equity in their homes that were purchased at peak prices.

However, while missed mortgage payments have risen, they remain at historic lows.

The report said some borrowers are extending their amortization periods to help lower their monthly payments.

“Canadian households have been playing financial Tetris very well, adjusting their budgets and even making some sacrifices to make ends meet. As long as income remains steady, most households are staying on track,” Bourassa-Ochoa said in the report.

The national housing agency said more than 1.5 million households have already renewed their mortgage at higher interest rates, with another million expected to do so in the coming year.

Bourassa-Ochoa said most Canadians have been resilient while facing higher interest rates at renewal.

She says extending the length of a mortgage has helped households manage short-term finances, but it comes at a greater longer-term expense.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 5, 2026.

Daniel Johnson, The Canadian Press