File photo (Liam Verster / Vernon Matters)

By Liam Verster

Population Growth Forecast

Vernon’s population projected to rise 47% by 2046: BC Stats

Jan 30, 2024 | 4:00 PM

A new provincial report estimates both Vernon and B.C.’s population will significantly increase over the next 22 years.

The Sustaining Growth: Population and Demography for B.C. and Canada report by B.C.Stats estimates that Vernon’s population will increase from 45,552 in 2023 to 67,356 in 2046.

That increase of 21,804 represents a 47.9 per cent population growth.

Other area municipalities are expected to see similar rates over that period as well.

• Coldstream: 11,882 to 17,235 (45.1 per cent increase)
• Lake Country: 17,370 to 32,566 (87.5 per cent)
• Kelowna: 153,376 to 247,406 (61.3 per cent)
• West Kelowna: 38,747 to 62,869 (62.3 per cent)
• Salmon Arm: 20,096 to 29,810 (48.3 per cent)
• Columbia-Shuswap: 9,207 to 14,175 (54 per cent)

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The 22-year population forecast also showed B.C.’s population increasing by 44 per cent from 5.5-million in 2023 to 7.6-million in 2046.

The report says higher federal immigration targets and changing immigration policies are resulting in higher population growth for Canada and B.C.

“While population is anticipated to increase across all of British Columbia’s development regions, growth will be concentrated in the Lower Mainland/Southwest region, which is projected to reach a population of 4.9 million in 2046 (+51%)” the report stated.

The report stated the fertility rate in B.C. was 1.11 children per birth parent in 2022, which was the lowest in Canada and well below the “replacement level” of 2.1.

The report added B.C.’s population is getting older, with the average age of people living in the province was 42.3 years old as of 2022. B.C. Stats stated that 19.9 per cent of B.C.’s population during that year were aged 65 and older.

B.C. Stats stated these factors showed that immigration and migration would be required to meet workforce needs.

Meanwhile, Canada is expected to see it’s population increase from 38.3-million people in 2023 to 48.8-million by 2046, representing a 27.4 per cent increase.

However, it was noted that the high-growth scenario could see the increase be 42.8 per cent, bringing the national population up to 54.7-million.

The report noted immigration is expected to be the main driver of national population growth as well, with 34 per cent of the national population made up of immigrants in 2041, up from 21.9 per cent in 2016.

“The above trends demonstrate that Canada and B.C. are anticipated to continue to grow and to have a more diverse population in the coming decades,” the report claimed.

“Understanding the current trends and the projected future of the country and its populace will be key in addressing any societal challenges that may be faced as the result of continuing development and change.”

B.C. Stats noted the forecasts are estimates, and the agency was exploring and assessing approaches to improve its population projection model including how non-permanent residents are calculated; the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility, mortality and migration trends; and the impact of climate change and other weather phenomena on the province.

To read the full report, click here.